diff --git a/api/src/main/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/Identity.java b/api/src/main/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/Identity.java
index f52e63633578..2b4c0ccdfa66 100644
--- a/api/src/main/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/Identity.java
+++ b/api/src/main/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/Identity.java
@@ -21,6 +21,8 @@
 import java.io.ObjectStreamException;
 import java.util.Set;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.BoundPredicate;
+import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.BoundReference;
+import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.BoundTransform;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.Expressions;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.UnboundPredicate;
 import org.apache.iceberg.relocated.com.google.common.base.Preconditions;
@@ -146,6 +148,14 @@ public UnboundPredicate<T> project(String name, BoundPredicate<T> predicate) {
 
   @Override
   public UnboundPredicate<T> projectStrict(String name, BoundPredicate<T> predicate) {
+    if (predicate.term() instanceof BoundTransform) {
+      return ProjectionUtil.projectTransformPredicate(this, name, predicate);
+    }
+
+    if (!(predicate.term() instanceof BoundReference)) {
+      return null;
+    }
+
     if (predicate.isUnaryPredicate()) {
       return Expressions.predicate(predicate.op(), name);
     } else if (predicate.isLiteralPredicate()) {
diff --git a/api/src/test/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/TestProjection.java b/api/src/test/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/TestProjection.java
index 5dd1cdab869b..19989d9dcbbd 100644
--- a/api/src/test/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/TestProjection.java
+++ b/api/src/test/java/org/apache/iceberg/transforms/TestProjection.java
@@ -44,6 +44,7 @@
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.BoundPredicate;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.Expression;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.Expressions;
+import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.ManifestEvaluator;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.Or;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.Projections;
 import org.apache.iceberg.expressions.UnboundPredicate;
@@ -394,4 +395,26 @@ public void testProjectionNames() {
             Projections.inclusive(partitionSpec).project(equal(truncate("string", 10), "abc"));
     assertThat(predicate.ref().name()).isEqualTo("string_trunc");
   }
+
+  @Test
+  void identityProjectionWithTransformPredicate() {
+    // Regression test for https://github.com/apache/iceberg/issues/15502.
+    // Identity transform cannot project a transform-based predicate (e.g., hours(ts)),
+    // so projection must fall back to alwaysTrue (inclusive) or alwaysFalse (strict).
+    Schema schema =
+        new Schema(
+            required(1, "id", Types.LongType.get()),
+            required(2, "ts", Types.TimestampType.withZone()));
+
+    PartitionSpec spec = PartitionSpec.builderFor(schema).identity("ts").build();
+    Expression hourFilter = equal(hour("ts"), 490674);
+
+    Expression projected = Projections.inclusive(spec).project(hourFilter);
+    assertThat(projected).isEqualTo(Expressions.alwaysTrue());
+
+    Expression strictProjected = Projections.strict(spec).project(hourFilter);
+    assertThat(strictProjected).isEqualTo(Expressions.alwaysFalse());
+
+    assertThat(ManifestEvaluator.forRowFilter(hourFilter, spec, true)).isNotNull();
+  }
 }